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Publications - New Working
Papers
In case you have any questions
concerning our publications please contact:
info@ezoneplus.org
WP No. 4 C. Fahrholz and A. Kemmerling:
´Tertiarisierung und Transition` (in German)
The paper offers
some empirical evidence on possible implications of the
Balassa-Samuelson-effect (HBS) on employment structures in CEE countries.
Since for the time being literature has focused on inflationary aspects
only, the authors (Freie Universität Berlin) argue that HBS will come
along with significant changes in the services sector. Thus, possible
results could rather less employment growth than inflationary pressure.
Note: This draft version is still under revision.
Download is
possible from here
Note: Working Papers 5-7 are designed to
function as general ´Market Reports` to our project. Thus, each of them
draws heavily on an empirical ´appendix`, so called Regional Input. We
will offer this data online as WP No. 5A and so forth as soon as
possible.
WP No. 5 T. Meyer: ´The Eastward Enlargement of the
Eurozone: The Shaping of Capital Markets` Thomas Meyer (Freie
Universität Berlin) takes a close look on the CEECs´ capital markets
development. In his view, they have already undergone massive changes due
to the anticipation of EU- and EMU-membership. However, facing the huge
amount of capital inflows, the CEECs still have to foster the evolution of
their financial institutions if they seek to prevent destabilising
effects.
Furthermore, to join EU and EMU will allow for ´imports` of
institutional stability but the issue of corporate governance, especially
how to provide for effective law enforcement will remain a prominent
problem.
Download is possible from here
WP No. 6 J. Kiander, R. Vaittinen and T.
Paas: ´The Eastern Enlargement of the Eurozone and Labour Market
Adjustment` Jaako Kiander and Risto Vaittinen from the VATT Government
Institute for Economic Research in Helsinki and Tiiu Paas (University of
Tartu) assess the scope of prospective labour market adjustments. Using a
general equilibrium model, the authors find that enlargement will
contribute stronger to GDP output than to growth in income, because factor
mobility effects dominate those of conventional trade policy.
Migration
will slow output growth in the candidate countries and accelerate growth
in the existing Member States, while the trends in per capita consumption
will be reversed; migration increases per capita consumption in the new
Member States and reduces it slightly in the existing
ones.
Download is possible from here
WP No. 7 J. Caetano et al: ´The Eastern
Enlargement of the Eurozone: Trade and FDI`
In an extensive
paper the research team from Portugal, José Caetano, Aurora Galego, Elsa
Vaz, Isabel Vieira and Carlos Vieira (Universidad da Evora), offers
econometric insight in prospective developments of trade and FDI patterns
between CEECs and the EU. The study also examines tendencies for sectored
specialisation and the evolution of countries´ location in the process of
international segmentation of production.
Since, for instance, FDI
flows also depend on the size of population of the host country, smaller
current EU member states such as Portugal may see it more difficult to
attract foreign capital in the future.
Download is possible from here
WP No. 8 R. Rovelli and R. Golinelli:
´Monetary Policy Transmissions, interest rate rules and Inflation
Targeting in three Transition Countries`
We consider a small
structural model to describe the transmission mechanism of monetary policy
and the dynamics of inflation. We first verify the validity of the general
structure estimating it for Germany which represents a sort of benchmark
model. At least one of the links required for the transmission mechanism
of monetary policy, when we analyse the Central and Eastern European
Countries (CEECs), reveals to be not significant when considered on the
whole sample. On the contrary the results are closer to a textbook
description when the attention is shifted to the second part of the sample
only. We interpret this as a piece of evidence indicating that the
transition is indeed operating, but it is still ongoing and in some cases
it is not complete yet. We also verify that the effects of the exchange
rate on both the aggregate demand and on the inflation are in agreement
with the economic theory. We conclude that the exchange rate should be
actively used to control the inflation in the CEECs.
Download is
possible from here
WP No. 9 F. Iacone and R. Orsi:
´Exchange-Rate Management and Inflation Targeting in the CEE Accession
Countries`
Inflation in Central and East European countries
varied considerably over the transition phase, and econometric
relationships between prices, money, wages and exchange rates are said to
have been unstable during this period. In order to shed some light on the
issue, this paper analyses some empirical models of the inflation process
in the three earliest east European transition economies: the Czech
Republic, Hungary and Poland.
Download is possible from here
WP No. 10 R. Golinelli and R. Orsi:
´Modelling Inflation in EU Accession Countries`
In 1991, the
rate of inflation in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland was between
35% and 70%. At the end of 2001, it is below 8%. We setup a small
structural macro model of these economies to explain the process of
disinflation. Contrary to a widespread skepticism, which permeated a large
part of previous research on these issues, we show that a simple open
macroeconomic model, along the lines of Svensson (2000, Journal of
International Economics), with forwardlooking inflation and exchange rate
expectations, can adequately characterize the relationship between the
output gap, inflation, the real interest rate and the exchange rate during
the course of transition.
Download is possible from here
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